Critics argue that the approval of “climate credits” legislation on the opening day of Cop29 was rushed. The annual UN climate COP conference has kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan, against a backdrop of looming clouds. Once again, the world’s wealthiest country finds itself under the leadership of a figure actively opposed to addressing one of the most stubborn and urgent issues facing our planet.
For over three decades, global efforts to reduce emissions and combat climate change have failed to achieve the necessary efficiency and urgency. The return of Donald Trump to the White House comes at a critical moment for the transition to green energy, which is still in its nascent stages rather than nearing completion.
2024 is poised to surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record, with extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. Greenhouse gas emissions, meant to be reduced, have hit record levels, and cities worldwide are reeling from the impact of climate change. As the second-largest emitter after China, the United States cannot afford to back down from its responsibilities.
Trump’s administration, emboldened by a strong electoral mandate, could pose a greater threat domestically than internationally, especially if the Republican party gains control of both houses of Congress. During Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021, China outpaced the United States in the development of key renewable energy technologies like solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.
In response to Trump’s threats to roll back environmental regulations, the Biden administration introduced the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, directing substantial funding to green industries. Despite being primarily beneficial to Republican districts, a Republican-controlled Congress could jeopardize the act’s future. Trump’s policies, such as increasing fossil fuel production while threatening existing green projects, could disrupt investment plans and hinder efforts to compete with China in critical 21st-century technologies.
While the economic case for renewable energy has become stronger since Trump’s first term, with renewable investments outpacing fossil fuels, China has emerged as a dominant player. Trump’s actions could undermine global efforts to accelerate green energy transitions, which had received a boost from the Inflation Reduction Act.
Baku serves as an early gauge of the election’s impact. Trump’s team has hinted at a potential withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement, which he pulled out from in 2017 but was later rejoined by Biden in 2021. While no other country followed the U.S. at that time, a withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the parent treaty of the Paris Agreement, could have far-reaching consequences for international cooperation.
The ongoing negotiations in Baku include a new financial goal to assist developing countries in adapting to climate change. With wealthy nations struggling to meet a previous target of $100 billion annually, setting a new and more ambitious goal amid a potential U.S. withdrawal from Paris poses a significant challenge. Regardless, it is unlikely that Trump will dismantle climate efforts entirely. The EU and China may need to step in to fill the void left by the U.S., ensuring that the momentum towards a greener future continues without further delays.
