In every presidential election in the United States, candidates’ attention focuses on a specific group of states considered crucial for the final outcome.
The list of these states can change with each electoral cycle, depending on various factors such as the results of previous elections, polling data, new political trends, demographic changes, and the particular characteristics of the candidates.
Although over 240 million Americans are eligible to vote on November 5, in the US electoral system, winning the majority of the national popular vote does not guarantee victory.
To achieve the presidency, a candidate must secure at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes, which are composed of delegates from each state.
The number of delegates each state has varies according to its population size. In most states, the candidate who receives the majority of the popular vote takes all the electoral votes of that state, even if the margin of victory is narrow.
Thus, it is possible for a candidate to win the majority of the popular vote nationally and still not win in the Electoral College vote tally. This happened to Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party in 2016 when she lost to Donald Trump.
In the complex strategy to achieve the necessary 270 Electoral College votes, the so-called swing states play an essential role, as they can shift from one party to another between elections. In one election, these states may support the Democrats, and in the next, the Republicans.
In many of the 50 US states, the electoral competition is not typically tight, as one of the two main parties already has a more solid and traditional voter base, reducing the chances of the opposing party. Classic examples of this dynamic are California, which is widely seen as a Democratic state, and Texas, known for voting Republican.
On the other hand, in the seven states considered decisive this year, both President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have real chances of winning.
Additionally, a state is considered decisive when polling data shows a minimal difference between the candidates, often “within the margin of error,” as explained by Todd Belt, a political scientist and professor at George Washington University.
According to the data aggregator RealClearPolitics (RCP), as of August 19, Donald Trump had 47.5% of the vote intentions in the seven decisive states, nearly tied with Kamala Harris, who had 47.4%.
RCP shows a slight advantage for Trump in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.
On the other hand, the Silver Bulletin, a publication by statistician Nate Silver, suggests a small margin of advantage for Harris in Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Trump leading in Georgia and Nevada.
Harris’s entry into the race in July, after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, impacted the electoral landscape in several decisive states. In some cases, Trump was leading against Biden but was overtaken by Harris. In others, the difference between the two candidates was significantly reduced.
Moreover, Trump had been gaining support among voter segments that traditionally vote for Democrats, such as Black, Latino, and young voters. Although most of these voters still preferred Biden, the percentage supporting Trump was growing. Harris’s entry into the race seems to have revitalized these voter groups.
Another observed change is voters’ attitudes towards supporting a third candidate. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, could potentially siphon votes from both the Democratic and Republican candidates, benefiting the opponent of those losing votes.
However, the share of voters willing to support a third candidate has decreased since Harris entered the race. “This suggests that many voters were dissatisfied with both Biden and Trump,” explains Todd Belt. “But now that Harris is the Democratic candidate, those voters are returning to support the party.”
Belt warns that it is necessary to watch whether enthusiasm for Harris will continue until the party convention this month, the debate in September, and ultimately the election in November. “We have more than two and a half months until the election. A lot can change,” he says.
Arizona, historically a Republican stronghold, was surprised in 2020 when Joe Biden of the Democratic Party won the state. Before that, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win in Arizona was in 1996.
Immigration is one of the main issues likely to mobilize Arizona voters, which has nearly 600 miles of border with Mexico. Trump promised to “conduct the largest deportation operation in American history” and criticizes the Democrats for the increase in illegal immigration, which had reached record numbers before decreasing in recent months.
North Carolina has a tradition of supporting Republican presidential candidates. Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win the state, in 2008. Before that, North Carolina had voted Republican in presidential elections since 1980.
This year, according to RCP, Trump leads with 47.6% of the vote intentions, while Harris is at 46.4%. However, according to the Silver Bulletin, after weeks where the gap between the two candidates narrowed, Harris has now surpassed Trump.
A few weeks ago, some polls in Georgia showed a lead of up to 10 points for Donald Trump. However, this margin has decreased since Kamala Harris officially entered the race. Currently, according to averages from RealClearPolitics (RCP) and the Silver Bulletin, Harris and Trump are practically tied in the state, with a slight advantage for the Republican.
With over 30% of Georgia’s population consisting of Black voters, this segment played a crucial role in Biden’s victory in 2020. This year, Harris’s campaign is focused on mobilizing Black and female voters to secure a win in the state.
Until 2016, Michigan was seen as a loyal Democratic state in presidential elections. However, in 2016, Donald Trump broke this tradition by becoming the first Republican candidate to win in Michigan since George H. W. Bush’s victory in 1988.
This year, the average of nine polls aggregated by RCP indicates that Harris has 48.6% of the vote intentions in Michigan, compared to 46.6% for Trump. The Silver Bulletin also shows an advantage for the Democratic candidate.
Michigan has the highest proportion of Arab Americans in the country, and there is anticipation over whether US government support for Israel in the Gaza war might negatively affect Democratic performance in the state.
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won in Nevada was in 2004. However, many polls this year indicate an advantage for Donald Trump, although this advantage has decreased in recent weeks.
According to RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages, Trump has 47.3% of the vote intentions, slightly ahead of Kamala Harris’s 46%. The Silver Bulletin also shows Trump with a slight advantage, while FiveThirtyEight gives a small margin to Harris.
Nevada is characterized by a large share of Latino voters and a strong union presence. The economy is one of the main concerns for voters in the state, which faces one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.
For over 20 years, since 1992, Democratic presidential candidates won in Pennsylvania. This changed in 2016 when Trump won the state, but in 2020, Joe Biden regained Pennsylvania for the Democrats.
RCP averages show a minimal 0.1 percentage point lead for Trump. However, both the Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight place Harris ahead in the polls.
In 2016, Donald Trump broke a long-standing tradition by becoming the first Republican candidate to win in Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan. The state is part of the so-called “Blue Wall,” which also includes Michigan and Pennsylvania—industrial states that historically vote Democratic.
After the party’s defeat in 2016, Joe Biden managed to turn the situation around in 2020, winning Wisconsin again. This year, Wisconsin is once again crucial for the election.
According to RCP, Harris has 48.6% of the vote intentions in the state, slightly ahead of Trump’s 47.6%. Both the Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight also show an advantage for Harris.
This year’s list of decisive states reflects changes from previous elections. Florida and Ohio, which for decades were considered important swing states, do not feature among the most competitive states this year.
In both states, the Democratic presidential candidate won in 1996. In the following two elections, the Republican won. In 2008 and 2012, the Democrat won again, while in 2016 and 2020, the Republican emerged victorious.
